The starting gun has been fired and the race for the White House is under way. But in Iowa, where the first-in-the-nation Republican caucuses are just a year off, the landscape is icy and snowy and eerily silent.
There is no great mystery why: the Donald Trump effect.
But among potential Republican hopefuls for 2024 only the former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson has visited so far this year while Tim Scott, a senator for South Carolina, and Kari Lake, a former candidate for governor of Arizona, seen as a possible Trump running mate, have lined up appearances later this month.
He is also throwing down the gauntlet to would-be challengers, daring them to make the first move. While there are signs that some are preparing to take him on, none has yet launched a full-frontal attack on Trump or Trumpism, apparently wary of earning his wrath and alienating his base.
State governors who might seek to build their brand nationally include Greg Abbott of Texas, Brian Kemp of Georgia, Kristi Noem of South Dakota, Kim Reynolds of Iowa, Chris Sununu of New Hampshire and Glenn Youngkin of Virginia.
With a fiercely loyal base, Trump stands to benefit from a divided field, just as he did in 2016. In South Carolina he has already bagged the endorsements of Governor Henry McMaster and Senator Lindsey Graham, stealing a march on Haley and Scott within the state. But as Trump seeks to normalise himself with a traditional campaign so far, there are also important differences from seven years ago.
